One suggestion. The chart. It's not just that the slope of the line goes from Flat to Steep. There should be a gap up. Using your analogy, the last inch of water goes from zero damage to a lot. Yet if we add a second inch on top of that, the incremental damage will be positive but not signficantly so. For example, the first inch requires replacing all the flooring and one inch of the walls. The second inch only adds another inch of wall to replace which might actually cost nothing since it's really the labor and the workmen are cutting a minimum of a foot of drywall regardless.
There is not a corresponding nonlinearity in the proposed responses to climate change. We're still bickering over how to generate power rather than moving to overthrow the ruling class that has inflicted this upon us.
Not only a good explanation of non-linear response, but also of tipping points: the extra inch of rising water brings a discontinuous change of state. Keep explaining!
The question shouldn't be "Why are climate impacts escalating so quickly?", but "Are climate impacts escalating at all?" Aside from claims by alarmists that every bit of weather is caused by climate, and repeating of those claims in various media outlets, I've heard no claims at all that there's a trend.
If you want to contribute to public knowledge, present a case that some impact is actually escalating, compared to a baseline. Please.
I decided some years back that intuition is largely linear extrapolation. This was especially apparent during COVID, as people seemed completely unable to grasp exonential growth.
A recent study commissioned by the New Zealand government shows a significant minority are bonkers, and that's down-to-earth Kiwis who do not define themselves by their party vote.
I imagine the percentage is higher in the US where a pig-ignorant, narcissistic, vindictive and invincible liar may frighten the whole world by being "elected" president again. I say "elected" because the electoral college system is a rort by any definition.
Climate events are almost certainly not escalating this year--instead, there is a massive interannual event that may be once in 150 years, going on. It's 3 years of La Niña (quite unusual), followed by strong El Niño emergence. These two factors have compounded to produce a far warmer outcome than El Niño on its own would have done. After the event completes, net heat will have been expelled from the climate system, and will take a few years to catch back up to the trend.
One conspicuous source of perceived non-linearity is investment in persuading journalists to increase the incidence and persistence of tropes like Climate Crisis, and the often alarming headlines and news ledes that attend them. Covering Climate Now, a joint venture of The Nation Institute and Columbia Journalism Review kickstarted with a million dollars presented by Bill Moyers , has enlisted hundreds of outlets and overseen Crisis-friendly rewrites of the style manuals of major newspapers and new networks from The Guardian and the BBC, to PBS and National Public Radio.
One conspicuous source of perceived non-linearity is investment in persuading journalists to increase the incidence and persistence of tropes like Climate Crisis, and the often alarming headlines and news ledes that attend them. Covering Climate Now, a joint venture of The Nation Institute and Columbia Journalism Review kickstarted with a million dollars presented by Bill Moyers , has enlisted hundreds of outlets and overseen Crisis-friendly rewrites of the style manuals of major newspapers and new networks from The Guardian and the BBC, to PBS and National Public Radio.
The analogy I’ve used to illustrate the non-linearity is bending a finger backwards. Switching subjects, if you look at histograms of temperature observations, the “Q” or average part is getting flatter and the tails, especially the right (hot) side is getting longer... basically bigger extremes. No news there. Wait until ocean currents stop and sea level really rises. That’s when things will really super pick up for the worse up I’m guessing.
Fantastic article and excellent point.
One suggestion. The chart. It's not just that the slope of the line goes from Flat to Steep. There should be a gap up. Using your analogy, the last inch of water goes from zero damage to a lot. Yet if we add a second inch on top of that, the incremental damage will be positive but not signficantly so. For example, the first inch requires replacing all the flooring and one inch of the walls. The second inch only adds another inch of wall to replace which might actually cost nothing since it's really the labor and the workmen are cutting a minimum of a foot of drywall regardless.
Thanks again for a great article.
There is not a corresponding nonlinearity in the proposed responses to climate change. We're still bickering over how to generate power rather than moving to overthrow the ruling class that has inflicted this upon us.
I loved the Goddard talk, thanks for including it.
Not only a good explanation of non-linear response, but also of tipping points: the extra inch of rising water brings a discontinuous change of state. Keep explaining!
The question shouldn't be "Why are climate impacts escalating so quickly?", but "Are climate impacts escalating at all?" Aside from claims by alarmists that every bit of weather is caused by climate, and repeating of those claims in various media outlets, I've heard no claims at all that there's a trend.
If you want to contribute to public knowledge, present a case that some impact is actually escalating, compared to a baseline. Please.
I decided some years back that intuition is largely linear extrapolation. This was especially apparent during COVID, as people seemed completely unable to grasp exonential growth.
A recent study commissioned by the New Zealand government shows a significant minority are bonkers, and that's down-to-earth Kiwis who do not define themselves by their party vote.
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/quarter-of-conspiracists-say-violence-acceptable-to-achieve-change
I imagine the percentage is higher in the US where a pig-ignorant, narcissistic, vindictive and invincible liar may frighten the whole world by being "elected" president again. I say "elected" because the electoral college system is a rort by any definition.
Climate events are almost certainly not escalating this year--instead, there is a massive interannual event that may be once in 150 years, going on. It's 3 years of La Niña (quite unusual), followed by strong El Niño emergence. These two factors have compounded to produce a far warmer outcome than El Niño on its own would have done. After the event completes, net heat will have been expelled from the climate system, and will take a few years to catch back up to the trend.
One conspicuous source of perceived non-linearity is investment in persuading journalists to increase the incidence and persistence of tropes like Climate Crisis, and the often alarming headlines and news ledes that attend them. Covering Climate Now, a joint venture of The Nation Institute and Columbia Journalism Review kickstarted with a million dollars presented by Bill Moyers , has enlisted hundreds of outlets and overseen Crisis-friendly rewrites of the style manuals of major newspapers and new networks from The Guardian and the BBC, to PBS and National Public Radio.
One conspicuous source of perceived non-linearity is investment in persuading journalists to increase the incidence and persistence of tropes like Climate Crisis, and the often alarming headlines and news ledes that attend them. Covering Climate Now, a joint venture of The Nation Institute and Columbia Journalism Review kickstarted with a million dollars presented by Bill Moyers , has enlisted hundreds of outlets and overseen Crisis-friendly rewrites of the style manuals of major newspapers and new networks from The Guardian and the BBC, to PBS and National Public Radio.
The analogy I’ve used to illustrate the non-linearity is bending a finger backwards. Switching subjects, if you look at histograms of temperature observations, the “Q” or average part is getting flatter and the tails, especially the right (hot) side is getting longer... basically bigger extremes. No news there. Wait until ocean currents stop and sea level really rises. That’s when things will really super pick up for the worse up I’m guessing.