OK, I got bored waiting for Zeke to either post his data or a link to the source. So I digitized it. Here's the result of the linear analysis from 2007 on:
===
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-1.11505 -0.24525 0.06595 0.29785 0.58394
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 17.889706 46.055950 0.388 0.703
time(tser) -0.006674 0.022856 -0.292 0.774
Residual standard error: 0.4617 on 15 degrees of freedom
F-statistic: 0.08527 on 1 and 15 DF, p-value: 0.7743
===
Note that there is an extremely slight downward trend to the regression line (-0.006 MKm^2/year), but that it is ridiculously far from significant (p-value = 0.77).
So I was wrong that the trend might be "flat or slightly increasing" … however, this analysis clearly shows that there has been no significant trend in the minimum Arctic sea ice area for the last 17 years.
And that is what is hidden or obscured by Zeke simply drawing a straight line through the whole dataset.
Finally, I've uploaded an image containing the data and a CEEMD smooth of the data, to show what Zeke's straight line is hiding. It's here: https://imgur.com/57kVqaE
I saw a segment that stressed how much less dense the ice was as well. So even if it's as large or nearly as large (surface area) the total mass wasn't the same. Any truth to that?
On a side note I just saw Sabine's video on the high ECS models. Something tells me the imminent apocalypse crowd is going to use that as gospel.
Per your graph, winter minimum Arctic sea ice has been flat or slightly increasing since 2007, a period of seventeen years.
You putting a trend line to totally obscure that fact is cherry picking of the highest order. At least have the decency to use a LOWESS smooth or the equivalent.
Thanks, Zeke. That's not far from a straight line. Dial back on the "f" setting of the LOWESS and take another look.
Alternatively, post up a link to your winter minimum data (or just put the data in a comment here) and I'll do a proper CEEMD analysis.
Sorry for the harsh tone of my initial comment, totally unwarranted. My apologies.
w.
Transpolar commercial navigation is feeling very optimistic seeing the summer decline.
OK, I got bored waiting for Zeke to either post his data or a link to the source. So I digitized it. Here's the result of the linear analysis from 2007 on:
===
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-1.11505 -0.24525 0.06595 0.29785 0.58394
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 17.889706 46.055950 0.388 0.703
time(tser) -0.006674 0.022856 -0.292 0.774
Residual standard error: 0.4617 on 15 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared: 0.005652, Adjusted R-squared: -0.06064
F-statistic: 0.08527 on 1 and 15 DF, p-value: 0.7743
===
Note that there is an extremely slight downward trend to the regression line (-0.006 MKm^2/year), but that it is ridiculously far from significant (p-value = 0.77).
So I was wrong that the trend might be "flat or slightly increasing" … however, this analysis clearly shows that there has been no significant trend in the minimum Arctic sea ice area for the last 17 years.
And that is what is hidden or obscured by Zeke simply drawing a straight line through the whole dataset.
Finally, I've uploaded an image containing the data and a CEEMD smooth of the data, to show what Zeke's straight line is hiding. It's here: https://imgur.com/57kVqaE
My best to all,
w.
My best to all,
w.
Thank you for your report. What are the impacts of having ice-free Arctic conditions, even if they occur only in the summer?
I saw a segment that stressed how much less dense the ice was as well. So even if it's as large or nearly as large (surface area) the total mass wasn't the same. Any truth to that?
On a side note I just saw Sabine's video on the high ECS models. Something tells me the imminent apocalypse crowd is going to use that as gospel.
Per your graph, winter minimum Arctic sea ice has been flat or slightly increasing since 2007, a period of seventeen years.
You putting a trend line to totally obscure that fact is cherry picking of the highest order. At least have the decency to use a LOWESS smooth or the equivalent.
Bad scientist, no cookies.
w.