Jim, take a look at my CEEMD smooth of the Arctic sea ice extent. Nature rarely moves in straight lines. A smooth, whether Gaussian, LOWESS, or CEEMD, better represents how the ice area has changed.
"The annual averages show much less fluctuation than the annual minima, so we can estimate things like rates of change with greater precision. I find that there is statistical evidence that the rate changed over time. One model of such changes uses three straight-line segments with their changes chosen to best-fit the data, like this:"
Jim, take a look at my CEEMD smooth of the Arctic sea ice extent. Nature rarely moves in straight lines. A smooth, whether Gaussian, LOWESS, or CEEMD, better represents how the ice area has changed.
https://imgur.com/57kVqaE
w.
I saw that Willis, but it makes no reference to "the physics of the sea ice annual melt/freeze cycle". Hence my question!
See also this "statistical" analysis by "Tamino", which involves three straight lines instead of one:
https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2021/10/facts-about-the-arctic-in-october-2021/
"The annual averages show much less fluctuation than the annual minima, so we can estimate things like rates of change with greater precision. I find that there is statistical evidence that the rate changed over time. One model of such changes uses three straight-line segments with their changes chosen to best-fit the data, like this:"
https://GreatWhiteCon.info/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Tamino-3segments.jpg