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On track for the warmest August on record
2023 continues its inexorable march toward being the warmest year on record
While the extreme global temperatures the world is currently experiencing have been out of the news for the last few weeks in lieu of catastrophic wildfires in Canada and Hawaii and a tropical storm hitting California, the world has remained at record high daily temperatures for every day in August so far.
The figure below, from the JRA-55 reanalysis dataset, shows daily global temperatures through August 18th. The black line shows 2023 to-date, while the red line shows the current record-holder for the warmest year (2016).
While this reanalysis dataset only shows data back to 1955, other surface temperature datasets like Berkeley Earth confirm that we are seeing record monthly heat globally since global temperature records began back in 1850.
With each of the first 18 days of the month setting new all-time daily records (or tying in the case of August 14th), it is virtually certain that August 2023 will be the warmest August since global temperature records began in 1850.
The figure below shows August temperatures in the JRA-55 dataset between 1955 and 2022 (blue line), along with the projected August 2023 temperature and uncertainties based on the first 18 days of the month and their historical relationship to monthly temperatures.
These extreme August temperatures further increase the likelihood that 2023 will be the warmest year on record.