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Kevin Trenberth's avatar

Andrew, you missed pointing out that the environment now has at least 10% more water vapor with global warming and this is why it rains harder as the moisture converges into the spiral arm bands and the eye of the storm from about 4 times the radius of the storm. But moreover, the condensation of that moisture provides the fuel for the storm: latent heat release, and it is inevitable that the storm is more active. This increases intensity but also the lifetime and size of the storm. How much goes into each component varies from storm to storm and depends on rate of movement and whether it remains over the ocean. It enables the rebirth of the storms after an eye wall replacement, which is a primary mechanism for making it bigger and longer lasting.

Kevin Trenberth

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Alan Jackson's avatar

Thank you. I've been working on a taskforce for preparing for climate-driven disasters in Texas and I was very puzzled by the seeming contradiction of "more intense TCs" and "no increase in number of TCs". I guess the answer is that TC formation is a very non-linear process dependent on rather specific conditions and the TC occupied space is now on average more intense.

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