I would really like to understand how the non-polar global Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs), as reported by Climate Reanalyzer (https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/), fit into this. The SSTs went "off the rails" in mid March of 2023 and have yet to return to the fold. In fact, the average daily SST for the first 8 months of 2024 is well above the peak SST in 2016 (which happened on March 7). That 2016 peak was a record high (by a good margin) and that record stood for another 7 years. It's "insane" that the *average* SST for 2024 to date is higher than that 1-day record in 2016. Just looking at the Reanalyzer graph, it definitely looks like a system phase change happened around March of 2023.
I respect you a lot Zeke. Your ability to stay clear eyed, and at least from the outside, calm. I am 38 and full of Eco-Anxiety. This update really put me in a spiral. I want to have hope, but when people like Leon Simons surround your articles with scary language, it’s hard not to become a Doomer. Not sure, what I am going for with this comment, just a soul reaching out. Keep doing your valuable work. Cheers.
In July I was in a mountain city in Romania at the height of the European heatwave. It was brutal. Coincidentally, during that time I was editing a climate fiction short story taking place in the Dust Bowl of Central Europe around 2550 CE. During those sweltering days I wasn’t sure anymore whether my cautionary tale will stay just that, a tale.
This is terrifying—I had thought that Gavin Schmidt had concluded that temperatures have fallen back to expected territory, though I must have read that incorrectly. What does this mean for the 1.5 target?
Gavin's Nature piece posited that if temperatures had fallen out of record territory by August it would be informative that the 2023 anomaly may not be persistent. Unfortunately global temperatures remained in record territory (tied with 2023) for August.
Zeke, can you try to get this into NYT and reference as much critical data as possible? We need our institutions of higher learning to start a coordinated media campaign and issue some kind of letter declaring a state of emergency. Our universities need to wake up first.
The suggestion above that the <i>"bananas"</i> of late 2023 SAT was <i>"El Nino behaving weirdly"</i> seems to me the more likely position, this given that the SAT through the 2015-16 El Niño seem also to have been<i>"behaving weirdly."</i>
This is prompted by a nerdy look at NH & SH temp data.
If you break down the global SAT into SH, NH Ocean & NH Land, the global <i>"bananas"</i> resulted from NH Land SAT which, perhaps, was itself sent <i>"bananas"</i> by the NH Ocean SAT having a rather big upward wobble in its response to the El Niño. And, holding firmly onto my hat, with SAT continuing high into Sept 2024, I'm watching the ERA5 numbers to see if there could be a second upward wobble building in NH Ocean SAT.
The SH SAT did increase earlier than through the 1997-98 & 2015-16 El Niño years, but then I see the 2009-10 numbers a similar anachronistic <i>'response'</i>.
Or impoverished people in developing countries dying from pulmonary illnesses. That is usually not mentioned until one understands that many poor families are cooking with cow dung….
Zeke as always I enjoy your summations. I particularly like the 30-day running avg plots. I have been following some of the literature re: the 2024 hiatus in Atlantic hurricanes. Pls excuse the link that follows my Question: we're attempting to model global systems so can we assume that the seasonal temperature anomalies that you describe are correlated with the Atlantic hurricane anomaly? https://www.axios.com/2024/09/03/atlantic-hurricane-season-inactive Thanks.
That's a loud silence at the end of this... . Thanks for being honest, and doing the work you do! Wish you well.
I would really like to understand how the non-polar global Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs), as reported by Climate Reanalyzer (https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/), fit into this. The SSTs went "off the rails" in mid March of 2023 and have yet to return to the fold. In fact, the average daily SST for the first 8 months of 2024 is well above the peak SST in 2016 (which happened on March 7). That 2016 peak was a record high (by a good margin) and that record stood for another 7 years. It's "insane" that the *average* SST for 2024 to date is higher than that 1-day record in 2016. Just looking at the Reanalyzer graph, it definitely looks like a system phase change happened around March of 2023.
I respect you a lot Zeke. Your ability to stay clear eyed, and at least from the outside, calm. I am 38 and full of Eco-Anxiety. This update really put me in a spiral. I want to have hope, but when people like Leon Simons surround your articles with scary language, it’s hard not to become a Doomer. Not sure, what I am going for with this comment, just a soul reaching out. Keep doing your valuable work. Cheers.
The bad news is we don't understand it. The good news is we have smart people trying to understand it.
In July I was in a mountain city in Romania at the height of the European heatwave. It was brutal. Coincidentally, during that time I was editing a climate fiction short story taking place in the Dust Bowl of Central Europe around 2550 CE. During those sweltering days I wasn’t sure anymore whether my cautionary tale will stay just that, a tale.
Unsettling information, to say the least.
This is terrifying—I had thought that Gavin Schmidt had concluded that temperatures have fallen back to expected territory, though I must have read that incorrectly. What does this mean for the 1.5 target?
Gavin's Nature piece posited that if temperatures had fallen out of record territory by August it would be informative that the 2023 anomaly may not be persistent. Unfortunately global temperatures remained in record territory (tied with 2023) for August.
He did post this on BlueSky in August which was a little confusing re your above point (apologies for the external link):
https://bsky.app/profile/climateofgavin.bsky.social/post/3kzel4u3boa2v
Feeling doomed
Zeke, can you try to get this into NYT and reference as much critical data as possible? We need our institutions of higher learning to start a coordinated media campaign and issue some kind of letter declaring a state of emergency. Our universities need to wake up first.
On it ;-)
my money is , still, on James Hansen and his team
What would the graph look like if it included the 1930s?
1930s were much much colder than today. https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/which-was-warmer-the-1930s-or-the
The suggestion above that the <i>"bananas"</i> of late 2023 SAT was <i>"El Nino behaving weirdly"</i> seems to me the more likely position, this given that the SAT through the 2015-16 El Niño seem also to have been<i>"behaving weirdly."</i>
This is prompted by a nerdy look at NH & SH temp data.
If you break down the global SAT into SH, NH Ocean & NH Land, the global <i>"bananas"</i> resulted from NH Land SAT which, perhaps, was itself sent <i>"bananas"</i> by the NH Ocean SAT having a rather big upward wobble in its response to the El Niño. And, holding firmly onto my hat, with SAT continuing high into Sept 2024, I'm watching the ERA5 numbers to see if there could be a second upward wobble building in NH Ocean SAT.
The SH SAT did increase earlier than through the 1997-98 & 2015-16 El Niño years, but then I see the 2009-10 numbers a similar anachronistic <i>'response'</i>.
(For those not into their own nerdy dive into the SAT data, I'm maintaining a graphic (sorry no <i>'hot'</i> link, and hoping this HTML works here) <a href="https://sites.google.com/site/housman100resultstemperarypost/cited-graphs">on this page -First posted 14th Feb 2024</a>)
What might this mean going forward?
Is the final paragraph omitted on purpose?
All I can think of is what this all is doing to the world's crops?
Or impoverished people in developing countries dying from pulmonary illnesses. That is usually not mentioned until one understands that many poor families are cooking with cow dung….
Zeke as always I enjoy your summations. I particularly like the 30-day running avg plots. I have been following some of the literature re: the 2024 hiatus in Atlantic hurricanes. Pls excuse the link that follows my Question: we're attempting to model global systems so can we assume that the seasonal temperature anomalies that you describe are correlated with the Atlantic hurricane anomaly? https://www.axios.com/2024/09/03/atlantic-hurricane-season-inactive Thanks.