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Just Dean's avatar

I definitely recommend that everyone take a look at the Carbon Brief article. I definitely see similar sawtooth-like temperature excursions for the 1998 and 2016 El Nino events. Only time will tell what the 2023-2024 El Nino temperature excursion looks like. Let’s just hope that the Multimodel forecast holds up.

One almost has to take a step back and remain a somewhat objective observer about the whole situation. We may need to approach this as many people approach the stock market, i.e., we are in this for the long haul and not worry so much about the short-term fluctuations.

In the end, these short-term excursions are already in the “pipeline” and there is very little we can do except record the data and try to understand it. In my opinion, it is only helpful if these “unnerving, mind-boggling” excursions drive a deeper sense of urgency about taking action.

I for one wish the National Academies report released last week, https://www.nationalacademies.org/news/2023/10/new-report-provides-comprehensive-plan-to-meet-u-s-net-zero-goals-and-ensure-fair-and-equitable-energy-transition, that provides a plan for meeting U.S. net-zero goals by 2050, was getting more press and attention from the media and the climate science community. I believe that is where we really need to be focusing our attention. We need to call on policymakers in Washington to adopt the recommendations laid out in that plan.

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Gordon Lehman's avatar

Loeb et al (2121):

ASR, .65 W/m2/decade 2002-2022

CO2 and all other trace GHGs, .22 W/m2/decade

Factually incorrect?

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