I definitely recommend that everyone take a look at the Carbon Brief article. I definitely see similar sawtooth-like temperature excursions for the 1998 and 2016 El Nino events. Only time will tell what the 2023-2024 El Nino temperature excursion looks like. Let’s just hope that the Multimodel forecast holds up.
One almost has to take a step back and remain a somewhat objective observer about the whole situation. We may need to approach this as many people approach the stock market, i.e., we are in this for the long haul and not worry so much about the short-term fluctuations.
In the end, these short-term excursions are already in the “pipeline” and there is very little we can do except record the data and try to understand it. In my opinion, it is only helpful if these “unnerving, mind-boggling” excursions drive a deeper sense of urgency about taking action.
I fully realize Jim Hansen does not recognize the importance of his admission. His attempt to limit it to 2015 is telling, as ASR clearly dominates warming for the entire CERES record. Nevertheless, for the godfather of CO2 to acknowledge the CERES attribution and admit that for any period CO2 is not the main driver of warming, indeed not even close, is an enormous step forward for science.
The reality is we have no reason to believe CO2 in aggregate, including sources larger than human combustion to the atmosphere, EVER controlled warming. Surely you will not argue the lower concentrations of the past controlled warming when the current levels, the highest is several million years, are unable to do so.
I would like to circle back to the discussion of natural gas. Maybe you can address this in a future post.
1. What is your latest thinking about natural gas as a bridge or transition fuel away from coal to renewables?
2. Zeke's 2015 study seems somewhat at odds with a recent paper by Deborah Gordon et al. where they claim that a leakage rate as low as 0.2% puts natural gas "on par with coal.' Thoughts?
3. I personally feel that we should be doing everything we can to leave coal behind up to and including exporting natural gas if that helps eliminate coal elsewhere in the world. I'm also willing to let Joe Manchin have his pipeline if it allows permitting reform for easing expansion of the national grid required for renewables. My thinking hinges somewhat on your answers to 1 and 2.
We live in an interglacial period of the Pleistocene ice age. The last 4 interglacials were warmer than today even without the ~5% boost from human CO2. Why are you surprised the planet is naturally warming?
Thank you for presenting your re-analyses. Obviously the 2023 trend is robust and appears to have lots of momentum. I'm pleased that your results are being published in the more widely circulated news media. Good information is required for making informed policy that is available to the voting public. Big Oil is consolidating via huge mergers and the US Congress is not the most hopeful source of "informed policy". Yet, hope reigns.
I definitely recommend that everyone take a look at the Carbon Brief article. I definitely see similar sawtooth-like temperature excursions for the 1998 and 2016 El Nino events. Only time will tell what the 2023-2024 El Nino temperature excursion looks like. Let’s just hope that the Multimodel forecast holds up.
One almost has to take a step back and remain a somewhat objective observer about the whole situation. We may need to approach this as many people approach the stock market, i.e., we are in this for the long haul and not worry so much about the short-term fluctuations.
In the end, these short-term excursions are already in the “pipeline” and there is very little we can do except record the data and try to understand it. In my opinion, it is only helpful if these “unnerving, mind-boggling” excursions drive a deeper sense of urgency about taking action.
I for one wish the National Academies report released last week, https://www.nationalacademies.org/news/2023/10/new-report-provides-comprehensive-plan-to-meet-u-s-net-zero-goals-and-ensure-fair-and-equitable-energy-transition, that provides a plan for meeting U.S. net-zero goals by 2050, was getting more press and attention from the media and the climate science community. I believe that is where we really need to be focusing our attention. We need to call on policymakers in Washington to adopt the recommendations laid out in that plan.
Loeb et al (2121):
ASR, .65 W/m2/decade 2002-2022
CO2 and all other trace GHGs, .22 W/m2/decade
Factually incorrect?
I fully realize Jim Hansen does not recognize the importance of his admission. His attempt to limit it to 2015 is telling, as ASR clearly dominates warming for the entire CERES record. Nevertheless, for the godfather of CO2 to acknowledge the CERES attribution and admit that for any period CO2 is not the main driver of warming, indeed not even close, is an enormous step forward for science.
The reality is we have no reason to believe CO2 in aggregate, including sources larger than human combustion to the atmosphere, EVER controlled warming. Surely you will not argue the lower concentrations of the past controlled warming when the current levels, the highest is several million years, are unable to do so.
Zeke and Andrew,
I would like to circle back to the discussion of natural gas. Maybe you can address this in a future post.
1. What is your latest thinking about natural gas as a bridge or transition fuel away from coal to renewables?
2. Zeke's 2015 study seems somewhat at odds with a recent paper by Deborah Gordon et al. where they claim that a leakage rate as low as 0.2% puts natural gas "on par with coal.' Thoughts?
3. I personally feel that we should be doing everything we can to leave coal behind up to and including exporting natural gas if that helps eliminate coal elsewhere in the world. I'm also willing to let Joe Manchin have his pipeline if it allows permitting reform for easing expansion of the national grid required for renewables. My thinking hinges somewhat on your answers to 1 and 2.
Thanks,
Dean
If it were possible, how much impact do you think removing all fossil fuels by 2030 would have?
We live in an interglacial period of the Pleistocene ice age. The last 4 interglacials were warmer than today even without the ~5% boost from human CO2. Why are you surprised the planet is naturally warming?
Great information. I found you through Climate and Economy which posted a link to your post today https://climateandeconomy.com/2023/10/24/24th-october-2023-todays-round-up-of-climate-news/
Thank you for presenting your re-analyses. Obviously the 2023 trend is robust and appears to have lots of momentum. I'm pleased that your results are being published in the more widely circulated news media. Good information is required for making informed policy that is available to the voting public. Big Oil is consolidating via huge mergers and the US Congress is not the most hopeful source of "informed policy". Yet, hope reigns.
rainfall, impacts of drought on global breadbaskets/
"a picture is worth a thousand words" and your graphs tell the horrible truth so completely.