It’s been a chilly January in New England, and my utility company has the data (and the bills!) to prove it. But just as “one swallow does not a summer make” [Aristotle, apparently], one chilly region does not global cooling make. Sorry, foolish senator who tossed a snowball on the Senate floor, it’s still getting warmer.
Zelle, would you feel comfortable offering your own intuition about what is going on here? I understand this remains an area of intense investigation among climate scientists, and there are good explanations that have been proffered, like diminished Earth albedo. I’m very much a lay person, but it seems to me that even given those very grim explanations the degree of elevation of global temperatures currently is hard to explain. You hint at (very) anomalous El Niño heat being one possible cause, though somehow that seems less likely by the day. If you had to speculate, what would you say? Thanks for the Substack irrespective.
I'm gonna be honest that It is hard not to fall into a doom spiral seeing this sort of thing. I enjoy your and Andrew's posts (and other substacks, such as Gavin, Katherine and Hannah's) especially when entering the more human side of dealing but damn. I want to die of old age in a world that society/civilization lives in a way similar to the way It does now, not in a dystopian-like scenario. Have a life in the way of having kids, a dog maybe, retire.
How can the CAT or IPBES have a central estimate of 2.7 or so by 2100 when we are at 1.75 in a La Nina of all moments. It seemed we had Very accurate models up until 2022 but then 2023 onward went "whoopsie". Figures such as Leon Simmons, Sabine, commenting in y'alls posts disputing the info sends my mind into a blue screen state like "who should I Trust".
This is more than a rant than a comment per se, but there are moments where I look for scientific reason not to end it. How can one keep going forward with such an existential threat like this (either you speak of "existential" refering to society/civilization of humans or the species itself)
I certainly understand why one might feel doomed. But I think we still have the ability to keep warming below 2C, which is good. Not as good as 1.5C, but better than 2.5 or 3C.
I'm not American. My state (in my country, that is) had flooding so bad, out of the 480 towns, 475 declared a state of emergency, the entire state was underwater. And then, our president blamed this tragedy for the deficit (even tho him and his wife spend 40 million USD in shopping, clothing, food with our taxes, the Supreme Court justices own 2 million USD watches on a supposed 8 thousand/month salary and the executive and judiciary prosecute even the members of the legislative who they see as political opponents) and the whole event became a battleground for politicians to point fingers and look who's to blame. Corruption here is that bad
I'm from South America tho, but I see what I mean. But regarding your other point: war, as terrible as it is with massive death tolls and bloodshed, I see it as much easier to "solve", since it can be achieved by talks, concessions, treaties less hard to accomplish since it involves a small amount of actors to agree. Climate Change requires almost the entire world to accept the challenge and beat it (speaking in a more figurative way) in a time scale as short as a conflict
LOL, I was thinking the exact same thing. Zeke can literally write a post that has some blanks in it ("______ of 20__ was a record breaking month, ____C above preindustrial ...") and then quickly fill them in and publish that every month. Of course, he'd have to come up with a synonym for "gobsmackingly bananas" in each one.
Please look at the southern United States average temperatures this week. Jackson Ms. is 22, 22 ,24 degrees F. above average. Record highs are now 6 to 1 to record lows. This is an extinction event. An increase of 106ppm CO2 in 65 years as compared to the age of the earth! Less than a Blink of an eye. one small example? Minnesota's Jan. average temp. has increased 8.9 F. and minimum lows 10.8F just since 1970. The recent cold in MI was great! It reminded me of almost every winter when I was younger in the 1960's and 1970's. A single digit temp. for the first time since 2019. 5 years!
That doesn’t matchup I am 61 and I don’t remember a winter that has been so clod for so long. We had several days below 10 and weeks upon weeks below freezing. Where did you get this graph because it just doesn’t make any sense
It boggles my mind this isn’t front-page news. It boggles my mind world leaders aren’t racing to address this. (I mean, I understand the political and economic forces at play. But still!) I feel so confused, alone, and powerless.
Thank you, Zeke, for continuing to report on this. It seems like it takes a lot of strength to process this data day in and day out.
The Arctic is set for a very hot few weeks (anomaly). The sea ice is already at record low extent, and the volume has been low for months. It will be interesting to see what the sea ice looks like later in the year, and how that affects Albedo, EEI, GMST and the weather.
It’s been a chilly January in New England, and my utility company has the data (and the bills!) to prove it. But just as “one swallow does not a summer make” [Aristotle, apparently], one chilly region does not global cooling make. Sorry, foolish senator who tossed a snowball on the Senate floor, it’s still getting warmer.
Not only that, but more southern-dipping polar vortexes have been shown to be caused by increased arctic warming https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2752-5295/ad93f3
Good infor… wait. Not “good.” Fascinating information. But good news it is not. Important, though.
Well said.
Zelle, would you feel comfortable offering your own intuition about what is going on here? I understand this remains an area of intense investigation among climate scientists, and there are good explanations that have been proffered, like diminished Earth albedo. I’m very much a lay person, but it seems to me that even given those very grim explanations the degree of elevation of global temperatures currently is hard to explain. You hint at (very) anomalous El Niño heat being one possible cause, though somehow that seems less likely by the day. If you had to speculate, what would you say? Thanks for the Substack irrespective.
I'm gonna be honest that It is hard not to fall into a doom spiral seeing this sort of thing. I enjoy your and Andrew's posts (and other substacks, such as Gavin, Katherine and Hannah's) especially when entering the more human side of dealing but damn. I want to die of old age in a world that society/civilization lives in a way similar to the way It does now, not in a dystopian-like scenario. Have a life in the way of having kids, a dog maybe, retire.
How can the CAT or IPBES have a central estimate of 2.7 or so by 2100 when we are at 1.75 in a La Nina of all moments. It seemed we had Very accurate models up until 2022 but then 2023 onward went "whoopsie". Figures such as Leon Simmons, Sabine, commenting in y'alls posts disputing the info sends my mind into a blue screen state like "who should I Trust".
This is more than a rant than a comment per se, but there are moments where I look for scientific reason not to end it. How can one keep going forward with such an existential threat like this (either you speak of "existential" refering to society/civilization of humans or the species itself)
I certainly understand why one might feel doomed. But I think we still have the ability to keep warming below 2C, which is good. Not as good as 1.5C, but better than 2.5 or 3C.
Read this: https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/the-doom-spiral
We have the ability, technically, but not politically.
Trump, Putin and the BRICS all are putting nationalism and growth before sustainablity. 🙏🏽
To help each other💕
I'm not American. My state (in my country, that is) had flooding so bad, out of the 480 towns, 475 declared a state of emergency, the entire state was underwater. And then, our president blamed this tragedy for the deficit (even tho him and his wife spend 40 million USD in shopping, clothing, food with our taxes, the Supreme Court justices own 2 million USD watches on a supposed 8 thousand/month salary and the executive and judiciary prosecute even the members of the legislative who they see as political opponents) and the whole event became a battleground for politicians to point fingers and look who's to blame. Corruption here is that bad
I'm from South America tho, but I see what I mean. But regarding your other point: war, as terrible as it is with massive death tolls and bloodshed, I see it as much easier to "solve", since it can be achieved by talks, concessions, treaties less hard to accomplish since it involves a small amount of actors to agree. Climate Change requires almost the entire world to accept the challenge and beat it (speaking in a more figurative way) in a time scale as short as a conflict
This is a summary of published literature. It doesn't support your claim we are just in the middle of a natural process:
https://www.quantamagazine.org/how-earths-climate-changes-naturally-and-why-things-are-different-now-20200721/
Dear Mr. Hausfather, I am afraid you will publish many posts tilted "[MONTH] sets an unexpected temperature record" by your retirement.
LOL, I was thinking the exact same thing. Zeke can literally write a post that has some blanks in it ("______ of 20__ was a record breaking month, ____C above preindustrial ...") and then quickly fill them in and publish that every month. Of course, he'd have to come up with a synonym for "gobsmackingly bananas" in each one.
Please look at the southern United States average temperatures this week. Jackson Ms. is 22, 22 ,24 degrees F. above average. Record highs are now 6 to 1 to record lows. This is an extinction event. An increase of 106ppm CO2 in 65 years as compared to the age of the earth! Less than a Blink of an eye. one small example? Minnesota's Jan. average temp. has increased 8.9 F. and minimum lows 10.8F just since 1970. The recent cold in MI was great! It reminded me of almost every winter when I was younger in the 1960's and 1970's. A single digit temp. for the first time since 2019. 5 years!
That doesn’t matchup I am 61 and I don’t remember a winter that has been so clod for so long. We had several days below 10 and weeks upon weeks below freezing. Where did you get this graph because it just doesn’t make any sense
It boggles my mind this isn’t front-page news. It boggles my mind world leaders aren’t racing to address this. (I mean, I understand the political and economic forces at play. But still!) I feel so confused, alone, and powerless.
Thank you, Zeke, for continuing to report on this. It seems like it takes a lot of strength to process this data day in and day out.
Informative. Thanks Zeke. Sadly I suggest that, globally, we should not expect any leadership from the US government.
The Arctic is set for a very hot few weeks (anomaly). The sea ice is already at record low extent, and the volume has been low for months. It will be interesting to see what the sea ice looks like later in the year, and how that affects Albedo, EEI, GMST and the weather.