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Melanie Newfield's avatar

Really interesting, thank you. And encouraging too. This kind of thing - seeing that there is some change in the right direction - is important to communicate, especially when people are getting demoralised at the rate of progress. We are moving too slowly, but at least we can see the movement now.

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Alternative Lives R Available's avatar

You seem to be ignoring that methane emissions are rising fast, particularly due to melting permafrost, and with other greenhouse gases and atmospheric humidity, are accelerating the speed of climate changes.

You also seem to be ignoring that both forests and now oceans seem to have become net sources of carbon rather than carbon sinks, which must fundamentally affect the models you are referring to.

I also note that oil and gas exploration budgets have increased in many countries, China is actually increasing its coal production, and Britain has opened up new coal mines and North Sea oil and gas production.

If Trump takes the US presidency in the next few days, then the situation will suddenly become much worse. "Drill baby drill!"

There is also the likelihood of a Middle East war, in addition to the Ukraine war, both in oil and gas producer countries and, as always, wars contribute massively to CO2 emissions.

None of which suggests future CO2 emissions are under control.

And you don't mention the potential (and perhaps already underway) AMOC turnoff that'll also make your model's outcomes fundamentally irrelevant, at least in the Atlantic, Europe and the Artic.

As all the above seem outside your modelling, it seems hard to accept your analysis and proposed outcomes.

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