I like the idea of qualification rather than extended scale and I cannot think of a better word than MAX.
The reference to B737 is sad. Shows what happens when we listen to the Lomborgs of this world talking money instead of the technical community - especially one with a long history.
IF that will help actual policy making: infrastructure investments based on forward looking climate-weather models, better insurance rate making that more closely reflects the risks.
The change in nomenclature does not seem to be very important,
Agree Cat 6 should be added to the scale. I've argued elsewhere that hurricanes are primarily hydrologic events just looking at rainfall alone. Which makes me think it's time to create a Cat system for atmospheric river events. Water transport mechanisms are going to be increasingly important objects of study even though there's not much we can do to alter, much less prevent, them at present. Heat build-up is the primary driver and for something as vast as the ocean, what takes a long time to heat will take a long time to cool.
"A new study in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences makes the case that global warming is leading to tropical cyclones so intense they warrant a new designation: Category 6"
Umm - that's not the way I read your linked paper. It says that warming is projected to lead to more intense hurricanes, but notes increases in intensity only since 1979. The 1970s were the period of lowest recorded cyclone activity; increases since then represent a reversion to the mean. The IPCC concluded that there is no evidence of any trend in the number or severity of cyclones over the last 130 years.
I don't object to changing the scale - if a new designation would be useful, then let's use it. But it's misleading to claim that we are already seeing evidence of more severe storms.
Pacific Ocean typhoons would be the most likely to reach a Cat 6.
Warmer waters in the Western Pacific make typhoons stronger than Atlantic basin hurricanes.
Super typhoon Paka hit the island (Guam) the night before with average sustained winds of 175 mph. One wind gust recorded at nearby Anderson Air Force Base was the strongest ever recorded on earth at 236 mph. - that's tornado strength wind.
MAX has a good ring to it. The coming decades might see the next increment, the SUPER MAX that could conceivably be confused with a lottery. I would also expect that some international standard of metrics be used. Many people outside the USA might be reading your post and pausing to convert 157 mph to metric. Just an idea.
Water vapor / evaporations, continuing to increase in our atmosphere is the cIear cuIprit responsibIe for the increased intensity and veIocities associated with this trend. UnfortunateIy, at present there is a disagreement or misunderstanding amongst a portion of the scientific community.
As far as this researcher understands. Based on the what comes first theory of- the chicken or the egg, cIimate change is an impact from other causes, it is not the cause. There are specific reasons and often many, not aII , reasons are from human impacts. Now I'm more than certain that scientists may have many other reasons.
Though we lack all data, the data we have is sufficient to show soil temperatures are heating up, lightning strikes are increasing, oceans are warming, atmospheric moisture is increasing, more warm raining is falling on the polar ice masses as well as Greenland, plant and animal communities are migrating toward the cooler regions, at least those that are able. We are pumping ever more energy into a semi-closed system and even changing the atmospheric chemistry. Climate change deniers notwithstanding, things are changing fast and I don't think ours or the warming deniers' great grandchildren, will live in a world like the one we grew up in.
I wonder if either the addition of the adjective "Max" or the introduction of a Class 6 would generate more evacuations in advance of these major storms?
Direct quote from the research paper in question : "Our results are not meant to propose changes to this scale, but rather to raise awareness that the wind- hazard risk from storms presently designated as category 5 has increased and will continue to increase under climate change." ... The researchers use a hypothetical Category 6 to illustrate their point about climate change increasing storms' intensities.
I like the idea of qualification rather than extended scale and I cannot think of a better word than MAX.
The reference to B737 is sad. Shows what happens when we listen to the Lomborgs of this world talking money instead of the technical community - especially one with a long history.
IF that will help actual policy making: infrastructure investments based on forward looking climate-weather models, better insurance rate making that more closely reflects the risks.
The change in nomenclature does not seem to be very important,
Agree Cat 6 should be added to the scale. I've argued elsewhere that hurricanes are primarily hydrologic events just looking at rainfall alone. Which makes me think it's time to create a Cat system for atmospheric river events. Water transport mechanisms are going to be increasingly important objects of study even though there's not much we can do to alter, much less prevent, them at present. Heat build-up is the primary driver and for something as vast as the ocean, what takes a long time to heat will take a long time to cool.
"A new study in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences makes the case that global warming is leading to tropical cyclones so intense they warrant a new designation: Category 6"
Umm - that's not the way I read your linked paper. It says that warming is projected to lead to more intense hurricanes, but notes increases in intensity only since 1979. The 1970s were the period of lowest recorded cyclone activity; increases since then represent a reversion to the mean. The IPCC concluded that there is no evidence of any trend in the number or severity of cyclones over the last 130 years.
I don't object to changing the scale - if a new designation would be useful, then let's use it. But it's misleading to claim that we are already seeing evidence of more severe storms.
Pacific Ocean typhoons would be the most likely to reach a Cat 6.
Warmer waters in the Western Pacific make typhoons stronger than Atlantic basin hurricanes.
Super typhoon Paka hit the island (Guam) the night before with average sustained winds of 175 mph. One wind gust recorded at nearby Anderson Air Force Base was the strongest ever recorded on earth at 236 mph. - that's tornado strength wind.
6, it is only going to get worse in the future; therefore number scale would be considerably more appropriate.
MAX has a good ring to it. The coming decades might see the next increment, the SUPER MAX that could conceivably be confused with a lottery. I would also expect that some international standard of metrics be used. Many people outside the USA might be reading your post and pausing to convert 157 mph to metric. Just an idea.
Water vapor / evaporations, continuing to increase in our atmosphere is the cIear cuIprit responsibIe for the increased intensity and veIocities associated with this trend. UnfortunateIy, at present there is a disagreement or misunderstanding amongst a portion of the scientific community.
As far as this researcher understands. Based on the what comes first theory of- the chicken or the egg, cIimate change is an impact from other causes, it is not the cause. There are specific reasons and often many, not aII , reasons are from human impacts. Now I'm more than certain that scientists may have many other reasons.
Though we lack all data, the data we have is sufficient to show soil temperatures are heating up, lightning strikes are increasing, oceans are warming, atmospheric moisture is increasing, more warm raining is falling on the polar ice masses as well as Greenland, plant and animal communities are migrating toward the cooler regions, at least those that are able. We are pumping ever more energy into a semi-closed system and even changing the atmospheric chemistry. Climate change deniers notwithstanding, things are changing fast and I don't think ours or the warming deniers' great grandchildren, will live in a world like the one we grew up in.
I wonder if either the addition of the adjective "Max" or the introduction of a Class 6 would generate more evacuations in advance of these major storms?
Direct quote from the research paper in question : "Our results are not meant to propose changes to this scale, but rather to raise awareness that the wind- hazard risk from storms presently designated as category 5 has increased and will continue to increase under climate change." ... The researchers use a hypothetical Category 6 to illustrate their point about climate change increasing storms' intensities.