No chance of plateau. Big chance that atmospheric destabilization will cross a number of tipping points and the rise in temperatures will go exponential, rather than just increasing at a linear pace.
Without knowing what you mean by "atmospheric destabilization", it's hard to imagine what those tipping points might be. Of course, incremental changes will be ever more disruptive. Convective storms, for example, are growing stronger and more frequent. As for "exponential" rise in temperatures, there appears little doubt the trend of GMST has accelerated since 2000. See Tamino's latest statistical analysis: https://tamino.wordpress.com/2025/05/28/how-fast-is-the-world-warming. Keep in mind his analysis is physics-agnostic, but offers strong statistical confirmation of the recent acceleration.
Atmospheric destabilization, Below is both a podcast and detailed article from our research group, necapa-hydrodamtruth.org. 60 years of observations in the Arctic/subarctic regions. You can also read and get further details if you click to read the article. key to our climate issue is located in the subarctic regions from Siberia thru Canada to Northeastern Quebec. It is Impounding most of the fresh water former rivers into sea-size reservoirs all summers and generating hydroelectric just all winter
Just a note about just the name HydroDamTRUTH : For a while now I tend to associate the use of the word "truth" with creationists, alternative medicine hacks, conspiracy theorists and other cranks. "Truth" is something the governments or Big Pharma or NASA or doctors or the atheist scientists "don't want you to know." It is something that Brave Mavericks (who happen to be operating outside of their educational and professional background) are going to share with you.
I agree about the word truth, we're not stuck and as researchers we're not operating outside of science, we're trying to avoid the siloed world that some oder scientists have gotten used to. Prove us wrong my friend. Take the years of gathering information from many scientific efforts, on site data befor and after Megadams constructions
While temperature is a toasty topic, the world will long succumb to a global food crisis. Escalating war over food sources and fresh water will be exasperated by increasing heat. Rampid greed capitalism will not support food shortages in countries that have no benefit such as resources to fill the mills and factories of the wealthy countries. This may lead to land grabs, wars, escalation then who knows where.
Yes Bill I agree our agriculture is our Achilles heel. But I'm enough of a curmudgeon to say goodbye gladly to our global civilization. We've trashed the planet and quite frankly are too stupid to be the apex species here.
With the Hansen et al. 2025 and Foster and Rahmstorf (in press) finding that the warming rate going forward is more like 0.3 - 0.4C/decade since 2010, not the 0.2C/decade rate for 1970-2010, your 2027 estimate for the 20-year mean anomaly exceeding +1.5C may be correct.
I've lately been thinking along the lines of a punctuated equilibrium increase where the feedback loops create temporary slightly sloped plateaus followed by periods of rapid increase. Averaged over time it amounts to much below exponential heat increase - more like a broken pawl and ratchet. The net should be we reach 2.0c before century end, even factoring for best case mitigation efforts.
In March Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan issued a statement saying that their estimate is that we will exceed 3 C. They called it "catastrophic warming". These funders of fossil fuel expansion then go on to tell investors that they see future profits in air conditioning, likely referring to geothermal cooling for buildings. How to explain this insanity? Gordon Gekko: "greed is good".
I am reminded of the Gary Larson cartoon of the real reason dinosaurs became extinct where they are all standing around smoking cigarettes, https://screenrant.com/far-side-gary-larson-dinosaur-extinction-smoking-kills/ . Not that I believe climate change is existential - serious, but not existential - a similar cartoon for humanity would be, The Real Reason Humans Became Extinct, $$$.
thank you for this very lucid work
No chance of plateau. Big chance that atmospheric destabilization will cross a number of tipping points and the rise in temperatures will go exponential, rather than just increasing at a linear pace.
Without knowing what you mean by "atmospheric destabilization", it's hard to imagine what those tipping points might be. Of course, incremental changes will be ever more disruptive. Convective storms, for example, are growing stronger and more frequent. As for "exponential" rise in temperatures, there appears little doubt the trend of GMST has accelerated since 2000. See Tamino's latest statistical analysis: https://tamino.wordpress.com/2025/05/28/how-fast-is-the-world-warming. Keep in mind his analysis is physics-agnostic, but offers strong statistical confirmation of the recent acceleration.
Atmospheric destabilization, Below is both a podcast and detailed article from our research group, necapa-hydrodamtruth.org. 60 years of observations in the Arctic/subarctic regions. You can also read and get further details if you click to read the article. key to our climate issue is located in the subarctic regions from Siberia thru Canada to Northeastern Quebec. It is Impounding most of the fresh water former rivers into sea-size reservoirs all summers and generating hydroelectric just all winter
https://r3genesis.substack.com/p/164-the-earth-sauna-audio-version?utm_source=podcast-email%2Csubstack&publication_id=899805&post_id=162800940&utm_campaign=email-play-on-substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=play_card_post_title&r=2ddkm6&triedRedirect=true
Just a note about just the name HydroDamTRUTH : For a while now I tend to associate the use of the word "truth" with creationists, alternative medicine hacks, conspiracy theorists and other cranks. "Truth" is something the governments or Big Pharma or NASA or doctors or the atheist scientists "don't want you to know." It is something that Brave Mavericks (who happen to be operating outside of their educational and professional background) are going to share with you.
I agree about the word truth, we're not stuck and as researchers we're not operating outside of science, we're trying to avoid the siloed world that some oder scientists have gotten used to. Prove us wrong my friend. Take the years of gathering information from many scientific efforts, on site data befor and after Megadams constructions
Maybe we should have a Carousel (of Logan's Run) for scientists that have reached a certain age.
Some of those scientists are likely my age 75
It’s hard to take anyone seriously who says there’s “no chance” of an outcome where tremendous uncertainty exists.
I hope you're wrong on the exponential part Rob!
While temperature is a toasty topic, the world will long succumb to a global food crisis. Escalating war over food sources and fresh water will be exasperated by increasing heat. Rampid greed capitalism will not support food shortages in countries that have no benefit such as resources to fill the mills and factories of the wealthy countries. This may lead to land grabs, wars, escalation then who knows where.
Yes Bill I agree our agriculture is our Achilles heel. But I'm enough of a curmudgeon to say goodbye gladly to our global civilization. We've trashed the planet and quite frankly are too stupid to be the apex species here.
Micheal, been saying that for years. The dumbest species on this rock. We only recognize a threat when ir's in front of us.
With the Hansen et al. 2025 and Foster and Rahmstorf (in press) finding that the warming rate going forward is more like 0.3 - 0.4C/decade since 2010, not the 0.2C/decade rate for 1970-2010, your 2027 estimate for the 20-year mean anomaly exceeding +1.5C may be correct.
How does politics and basic human behavior fit into these projections?
Seriously, the number of fossil fuel lobbyists at COPs keeps going up, along with the Keeling Curve.
It factors enormously.
I've lately been thinking along the lines of a punctuated equilibrium increase where the feedback loops create temporary slightly sloped plateaus followed by periods of rapid increase. Averaged over time it amounts to much below exponential heat increase - more like a broken pawl and ratchet. The net should be we reach 2.0c before century end, even factoring for best case mitigation efforts.
Tje Agenda movie on Youtube
In March Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan issued a statement saying that their estimate is that we will exceed 3 C. They called it "catastrophic warming". These funders of fossil fuel expansion then go on to tell investors that they see future profits in air conditioning, likely referring to geothermal cooling for buildings. How to explain this insanity? Gordon Gekko: "greed is good".
I am reminded of the Gary Larson cartoon of the real reason dinosaurs became extinct where they are all standing around smoking cigarettes, https://screenrant.com/far-side-gary-larson-dinosaur-extinction-smoking-kills/ . Not that I believe climate change is existential - serious, but not existential - a similar cartoon for humanity would be, The Real Reason Humans Became Extinct, $$$.