No chance of plateau. Big chance that atmospheric destabilization will cross a number of tipping points and the rise in temperatures will go exponential, rather than just increasing at a linear pace.
Without knowing what you mean by "atmospheric destabilization", it's hard to imagine what those tipping points might be. Of course, incremental changes will be ever more disruptive. Convective storms, for example, are growing stronger and more frequent. As for "exponential" rise in temperatures, there appears little doubt the trend of GMST has accelerated since 2000. See Tamino's latest statistical analysis: https://tamino.wordpress.com/2025/05/28/how-fast-is-the-world-warming. Keep in mind his analysis is physics-agnostic, but offers strong statistical confirmation of the recent acceleration.
Atmospheric destabilization, Below is both a podcast and detailed article from our research group, necapa-hydrodamtruth.org. 60 years of observations in the Arctic/subarctic regions. You can also read and get further details if you click to read the article. key to our climate issue is located in the subarctic regions from Siberia thru Canada to Northeastern Quebec. It is Impounding most of the fresh water former rivers into sea-size reservoirs all summers and generating hydroelectric just all winter
Just a note about just the name HydroDamTRUTH : For a while now I tend to associate the use of the word "truth" with creationists, alternative medicine hacks, conspiracy theorists and other cranks. "Truth" is something the governments or Big Pharma or NASA or doctors or the atheist scientists "don't want you to know." It is something that Brave Mavericks (who happen to be operating outside of their educational and professional background) are going to share with you.
I agree about the word truth, we're not stuck and as researchers we're not operating outside of science, we're trying to avoid the siloed world that some oder scientists have gotten used to. Prove us wrong my friend. Take the years of gathering information from many scientific efforts, on site data befor and after Megadams constructions
In March Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan issued a statement saying that their estimate is that we will exceed 3 C. They called it "catastrophic warming". These funders of fossil fuel expansion then go on to tell investors that they see future profits in air conditioning, likely referring to geothermal cooling for buildings. How to explain this insanity? Gordon Gekko: "greed is good".
I am reminded of the Gary Larson cartoon of the real reason dinosaurs became extinct where they are all standing around smoking cigarettes, https://screenrant.com/far-side-gary-larson-dinosaur-extinction-smoking-kills/ . Not that I believe climate change is existential - serious, but not existential - a similar cartoon for humanity would be, The Real Reason Humans Became Extinct, $$$.
thank you for this very lucid work
No chance of plateau. Big chance that atmospheric destabilization will cross a number of tipping points and the rise in temperatures will go exponential, rather than just increasing at a linear pace.
It’s hard to take anyone seriously who says there’s “no chance” of an outcome where tremendous uncertainty exists.
Without knowing what you mean by "atmospheric destabilization", it's hard to imagine what those tipping points might be. Of course, incremental changes will be ever more disruptive. Convective storms, for example, are growing stronger and more frequent. As for "exponential" rise in temperatures, there appears little doubt the trend of GMST has accelerated since 2000. See Tamino's latest statistical analysis: https://tamino.wordpress.com/2025/05/28/how-fast-is-the-world-warming. Keep in mind his analysis is physics-agnostic, but offers strong statistical confirmation of the recent acceleration.
Atmospheric destabilization, Below is both a podcast and detailed article from our research group, necapa-hydrodamtruth.org. 60 years of observations in the Arctic/subarctic regions. You can also read and get further details if you click to read the article. key to our climate issue is located in the subarctic regions from Siberia thru Canada to Northeastern Quebec. It is Impounding most of the fresh water former rivers into sea-size reservoirs all summers and generating hydroelectric just all winter
https://r3genesis.substack.com/p/164-the-earth-sauna-audio-version?utm_source=podcast-email%2Csubstack&publication_id=899805&post_id=162800940&utm_campaign=email-play-on-substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=play_card_post_title&r=2ddkm6&triedRedirect=true
Just a note about just the name HydroDamTRUTH : For a while now I tend to associate the use of the word "truth" with creationists, alternative medicine hacks, conspiracy theorists and other cranks. "Truth" is something the governments or Big Pharma or NASA or doctors or the atheist scientists "don't want you to know." It is something that Brave Mavericks (who happen to be operating outside of their educational and professional background) are going to share with you.
I agree about the word truth, we're not stuck and as researchers we're not operating outside of science, we're trying to avoid the siloed world that some oder scientists have gotten used to. Prove us wrong my friend. Take the years of gathering information from many scientific efforts, on site data befor and after Megadams constructions
Maybe we should have a Carousel (of Logan's Run) for scientists that have reached a certain age.
Some of those scientists are likely my age 75
In March Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan issued a statement saying that their estimate is that we will exceed 3 C. They called it "catastrophic warming". These funders of fossil fuel expansion then go on to tell investors that they see future profits in air conditioning, likely referring to geothermal cooling for buildings. How to explain this insanity? Gordon Gekko: "greed is good".
I am reminded of the Gary Larson cartoon of the real reason dinosaurs became extinct where they are all standing around smoking cigarettes, https://screenrant.com/far-side-gary-larson-dinosaur-extinction-smoking-kills/ . Not that I believe climate change is existential - serious, but not existential - a similar cartoon for humanity would be, The Real Reason Humans Became Extinct, $$$.
How does politics and basic human behavior fit into these projections?
Seriously, the number of fossil fuel lobbyists at COPs keeps going up, along with the Keeling Curve.