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Dennis Horne's avatar

Every piece of research increases our knowledge of course but the question as to which kills more - the heat or the cold - is important mainly because the climate deniers keep telling us that cold kills more people therefore we should encourage global warming.

The rest of us know there are a lot more important changes to be considered than mortality. With a population of 8 billion it's neither here not there for survival of the species. Essentially it is the wanton destruction of the clement climate over the past 10,000 years that has enabled civilisation to develop and flourish that is the problem. We will not likely see 3C without wars, and nuclear war is on the cards.

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Marcus's avatar

I would recommend two additional resources for climate mortality in the US. The first is the Climate and Health Assessment chapter on temperature-related mortality (https://health2016.globalchange.gov/low/ClimateHealth2016_02_Temperature_small.pdf): it may be a bit outdated now (seven years is a long time in this particular corner of the climate impacts research field) but covers a lot of the key concepts and uncertainties. The second is a paper by Lay et al (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(21)00058-9/fulltext) that, like the Lee & Dessler paper looks at city-level data in the US, but then divides them into clusters to use Bayesian updating... which allows for then subdividing the data into shorter time periods to look at the change in temperature related vulnerability historically over time.

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