Thank you for all your great climate reporting. It'll make 2026 better for me and all.
My take on:
2025:
The year the climate change movement and ESG got stymied by Trump and far right politicians globally.
2026:
Newton's opposite and equal force to the suppression of the climate change movement. There will be a revival in activism, journalism, and governance for mitigating climate change.
That being said, every year we delay the deeper we sink in the quicksand and the harder it will be to get out of it.
Research showed that a rain forest in Australia turned from carbon sink to carbon source around 2000, and an African rain forest changed from sink to source around 2010. I predict that in 2026 climate scientists will begin to realize that this means that it was impossible for IPCC models to accurately predict the recent "unexpected" warming events. Because the models have been treating carbon sources as carbon sinks for a generation now, they must necessarily be underestimating the speed and severity of warming, now and in the future.
The most comprehensive class of climate models do have an interactive carbon cycle in them. So in theory, at least, they should be able to simulate changed like this. However, I agree that our confidence in those processes in the model should be low since we don’t have a lot of data to validate them.
Well, given that the studies confirming the change in rain forest emissions status were basically just published, it wouldn't be possible for the models have adjusted yet, would it? We also have a just published study finding that models have consistently underestimated the factors driving drought in the Amazon, that there are positive feedback loops (nonlinear increases in emissions) from the deep fissures in drought stricken land, the difference between our observed energy budget and the energy budget predicted by models, the loss of CO2 absorption by the stoma in the leaves of drought/heat stricken trees. All of these studies say in their abstracts that either current models don't account for their data, or the things they are measuring are increasing in a nonlinear fashion whereas the models treat them as being linear increases.
Do you expect an adjustment by models to show faster warming then they currently predict? I asked GPT5.1 to look at the difference between the forces driving warming described in the recent research and the assumptions current models are predicting. GPT5 predict 3 degrees C warming by 2050, based in current middle path models predictions, and the amount of extra warming the new research suggests.
Happy New Year Zeke and Andrew!
Thank you for all your great climate reporting. It'll make 2026 better for me and all.
My take on:
2025:
The year the climate change movement and ESG got stymied by Trump and far right politicians globally.
2026:
Newton's opposite and equal force to the suppression of the climate change movement. There will be a revival in activism, journalism, and governance for mitigating climate change.
That being said, every year we delay the deeper we sink in the quicksand and the harder it will be to get out of it.
Research showed that a rain forest in Australia turned from carbon sink to carbon source around 2000, and an African rain forest changed from sink to source around 2010. I predict that in 2026 climate scientists will begin to realize that this means that it was impossible for IPCC models to accurately predict the recent "unexpected" warming events. Because the models have been treating carbon sources as carbon sinks for a generation now, they must necessarily be underestimating the speed and severity of warming, now and in the future.
The most comprehensive class of climate models do have an interactive carbon cycle in them. So in theory, at least, they should be able to simulate changed like this. However, I agree that our confidence in those processes in the model should be low since we don’t have a lot of data to validate them.
Well, given that the studies confirming the change in rain forest emissions status were basically just published, it wouldn't be possible for the models have adjusted yet, would it? We also have a just published study finding that models have consistently underestimated the factors driving drought in the Amazon, that there are positive feedback loops (nonlinear increases in emissions) from the deep fissures in drought stricken land, the difference between our observed energy budget and the energy budget predicted by models, the loss of CO2 absorption by the stoma in the leaves of drought/heat stricken trees. All of these studies say in their abstracts that either current models don't account for their data, or the things they are measuring are increasing in a nonlinear fashion whereas the models treat them as being linear increases.
Do you expect an adjustment by models to show faster warming then they currently predict? I asked GPT5.1 to look at the difference between the forces driving warming described in the recent research and the assumptions current models are predicting. GPT5 predict 3 degrees C warming by 2050, based in current middle path models predictions, and the amount of extra warming the new research suggests.
Who rage hates on Climate Brink? Give them a boop on their noses is what I'll do.
Indeed, happy Solstice and subsequent New Year! Somewhat belatedly, as it's now 1/1/2026. As much as I might wish to deny it 8^)!
We must change our polluting habits. Conscient Of the consequences of our actions. Consuming just for consuming must stop.