Thanks for your perspective. I note that it is statistical and that you do not seem to be up on what is actually happening in the tropical Pacific: the EN is now well underway with huge ocean heat below the surface and already the interactions between the atmosphere and ocean are taking off (often referred to as the Bjerknes feedback, whereby the sea temperatures change the atmosphere and the winds in turn change the sea temperatures.). I strongly suspect that 2026 will be warmer than you currently project.
Hi Kevin, the model is statistical, true, but the central estimate currently assumes a 2.7C peak ONI in December 2026. The uncertainty in the model samples from a distribution across all the forecast runs on the Climate Dashboard ENSO tab: https://dashboard.theclimatebrink.com/#enso
I have some questions about the forecasting of global warming.
My zeroth question is a meta-question: Where are the best nerdy places online to ask these questions?
1. Is the Mauna Loa measurement (the Keeling Curve) the sole CO2 reference for global models?
2. What is the projected effect of the massive refinery and oil storage fires in the Iran War and from the Ukraine strikes (Tuapse, Perm, etc.), both in terms of GHG releases and aerosols? (I.e., does it move the needle?)
Thank you. I like the understandable analysis and explanation. Time to insulate and paint exteriors with high reflectivity paint. I think I am ready . . .
There's been some recent research that applying that sort of paint to sidewalks and buildings can increase ambient heat for pedestrians and also worsen air pollution.
True, but that is on a large scale, and IMO, should not be done without other measures, like insulation, and heat abatement via planting, better design, etc. Location makes a difference, too--the referenced study was for Singapore. That may not translate at all well to the US.
Also that particular plot shows year-over-year changes which is just based on the three alpha parameters (its not dependent on the betas used to calculate the current year).
Thank you for your hard work, sir! 👍👏
Zeke
Thanks for your perspective. I note that it is statistical and that you do not seem to be up on what is actually happening in the tropical Pacific: the EN is now well underway with huge ocean heat below the surface and already the interactions between the atmosphere and ocean are taking off (often referred to as the Bjerknes feedback, whereby the sea temperatures change the atmosphere and the winds in turn change the sea temperatures.). I strongly suspect that 2026 will be warmer than you currently project.
Kevin
Hi Kevin, the model is statistical, true, but the central estimate currently assumes a 2.7C peak ONI in December 2026. The uncertainty in the model samples from a distribution across all the forecast runs on the Climate Dashboard ENSO tab: https://dashboard.theclimatebrink.com/#enso
I have some questions about the forecasting of global warming.
My zeroth question is a meta-question: Where are the best nerdy places online to ask these questions?
1. Is the Mauna Loa measurement (the Keeling Curve) the sole CO2 reference for global models?
2. What is the projected effect of the massive refinery and oil storage fires in the Iran War and from the Ukraine strikes (Tuapse, Perm, etc.), both in terms of GHG releases and aerosols? (I.e., does it move the needle?)
Thank you for your attention to this natter.
I assume the use of natter was intentional?
Yup.
(Although, technically, it would be more apt if Trump used that to describe any tweets he writes.)
Thank you. I like the understandable analysis and explanation. Time to insulate and paint exteriors with high reflectivity paint. I think I am ready . . .
There's been some recent research that applying that sort of paint to sidewalks and buildings can increase ambient heat for pedestrians and also worsen air pollution.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S3051052X26000215
True, but that is on a large scale, and IMO, should not be done without other measures, like insulation, and heat abatement via planting, better design, etc. Location makes a difference, too--the referenced study was for Singapore. That may not translate at all well to the US.
Thank you Dr Hausfather for reporting climate truth.
You have 3 alphas and 6 betas in your equations. You fit them to the 5 data points of previous strong El Ninos, right?
No, they are fitted to all years since 1970.
OK, that's better of course. But those 5 are not exactly out of sample in this setup.
Its more of an opportunistic hindcast than an out of sample test. But fair point.
Also that particular plot shows year-over-year changes which is just based on the three alpha parameters (its not dependent on the betas used to calculate the current year).
In the sense that alphas and betas are calibrated separately? I thought so, too.
On récolte toujours ce que l'on sème.