Nice reminder Andrew that we have to talk global heat not just regional to the deniers. But, most deniers will deny any rebuttal anyway. What your post shouted out to me is the dust bowl tragedy and we heading into many of them globally and they'll be worse. When we talk heat 🥵 we gotta talk water 💧.
Unprecedented degradation from mechanical and chemical treatment of land is far more widespread today than it was in the 1930s. It doesn't make sense to argue that such a signal simply does not exist today when the underlying drivers are much more extensive and widespread globally now. The Dust Bowl was a clearly detectable regional example, but it occurred in a relatively confined area and has since been partly masked by practices such as irrigation. Globally, however, irrigation of land is a luxury and but a small fraction of currently destroyed landscapes. We have a UN framework on desertification, and another on biodiversity, largely for these reasons. Pretending landscape destruction is limited to the past doesn't add up; this framing seems to be mostly out of convenience or mental shortcut. The pragmatic route is to say look, we see a clear signal in the past, and since degradation is far more extensive globally today, it's probably still there as part of today's signal.
I think one of the biggest opportunities for climate communication is helping people see thresholds instead of trends. Systems often appear stable right up until they aren't, and that's true for infrastructure, ecosystems, and even economies. Once you start looking for those margins of safety, the conversation changes completely.
No it's not. It doesn't bother to define the index.
In the US 1921 was the warmest year on record before 1934. Both followed quickly on 1917... the coldest year. Clearly, man-made CO2 was never involved. And July of 1921 was also a very serious problem in Europe.
I think you missed the point of this post. The data used in the original plot are biased and need to be corrected. Then you need to think about the physics of the issue. If you do that, the clear conclusion is that the increase in heatwaves in the last few decades is due to humans.
Heh. I, for one, assume that's what he's here for.
"Then you need to think about the physics of the issue. If you do that,the clear conclusion is that the increase in heatwaves in the last few decades is due to humans."
Seems to me he's here to make that unclear! Of his comments, "what is good is not new, and what is new is not good" (h/t Martin Sherlock). AFAICT, his sole motive for commenting on TCB is to obstruct collective decarbonization. You've got more patience than I, for which I'm sure we're all grateful!
Suddenly I see a link in the reply box to 'The Climate Brink reply rules'! Thanks!
I did not miss your point. You totally ignored the data going back to 1917 and 1921 in both the US and in Europe.
Europe in the 1920s was hot and dry … Weather of 1921…press comments OUTSIDE the US: (In the US 1921 was the warmest year on record and it followed 1917 only four years earlier… the coldest year on record)
BRITISH ISLES: London, July 10. England is sweltering and suffering the worst drought in a century. Today was the seventy-eighth virtually rainless day. For the third successive day temperatures have exceeded 100. The rainfall for the year is less than one-third normal to date.
FRANCE: Paris July 12. The Senate yesterday... cancelled the usual July 14 military review in Longchamps owing to the extreme heat.
GERMANY: Berlin, July 27. The potato crop has been the hardest hit of any in Germany by the prolonged dry weather..
RUSSIA: July 17. Twenty million persons are on the verge of starvation in drought-stricken sections of Russia, subsisting mainly on moss, grass and the bark of trees, according to the Vossische Zeitung, which quotes information from "reliable Russian sources." The parched earth, it is asserted, is opening up great crevices, and wells and rivers are drying up. Foliage is asserted to have withered on the trees, and a number of villages are reported on fire
SWITZERLAND: Zermatt: July 26. The heat has not greatly abated. On the summit of the Wellenkuppe, above Zermatt, and 12,830 feet high, the temperature at 10 o'clock in the morning has exceeded 100°F., and this despite the summit's being perpetually snow-clad… never do Alpinists remember such a variety of bright-colored butterflies in the high mountains as this year.
ITALY: July 30. The principal phenomenon...was the intensely hot weather. An unprecedented heat wave continued to develop in its intensity of heat and in its length and duration.
ITALY: Venice, July 30. The principal phenomena which prevailed [this week] was the intensely hot weather. An unprecedented heat wave continued to develop in its intensity of heat and in length of its duration. For several weeks the heat has increased until the past week the temperature has been up in the high nineties for day after day, and unofficial reports of over 100° have been frequent. The extremely high humidity has practically brought active business to a standstill, and has caused many deaths and heat exhaustions. The principal damage caused by the heat wave is the protracted period of drought which accompanies it. Agriculture is the chief sufferer from the heat and drought and no alleviation appears in sight. Weeks of cloudless scorching days have played havoc with the crops which were in progress when the heat wave began.
Clearly atmospheric CO2 was close to pre-industrial and could not have been the proximate cause..physics or not.
Would love to have you all chime in on our upcoming article on extreme heat!!
Nice reminder Andrew that we have to talk global heat not just regional to the deniers. But, most deniers will deny any rebuttal anyway. What your post shouted out to me is the dust bowl tragedy and we heading into many of them globally and they'll be worse. When we talk heat 🥵 we gotta talk water 💧.
Unprecedented degradation from mechanical and chemical treatment of land is far more widespread today than it was in the 1930s. It doesn't make sense to argue that such a signal simply does not exist today when the underlying drivers are much more extensive and widespread globally now. The Dust Bowl was a clearly detectable regional example, but it occurred in a relatively confined area and has since been partly masked by practices such as irrigation. Globally, however, irrigation of land is a luxury and but a small fraction of currently destroyed landscapes. We have a UN framework on desertification, and another on biodiversity, largely for these reasons. Pretending landscape destruction is limited to the past doesn't add up; this framing seems to be mostly out of convenience or mental shortcut. The pragmatic route is to say look, we see a clear signal in the past, and since degradation is far more extensive globally today, it's probably still there as part of today's signal.
Interesting points. Can you point me some data to support it?
Are you familiar with the US definition of the heat wave index?
US annual index heatwaves.png
It might help.
I think one of the biggest opportunities for climate communication is helping people see thresholds instead of trends. Systems often appear stable right up until they aren't, and that's true for infrastructure, ecosystems, and even economies. Once you start looking for those margins of safety, the conversation changes completely.
Yes, I agree. I wrote about this here: https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/why-are-climate-impacts-escalating
Thanku for sharing I will read.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/heat-wave-index-usa
check this out,,,
Yes, that’s the same figure we’re talking about in this article.
No it's not. It doesn't bother to define the index.
In the US 1921 was the warmest year on record before 1934. Both followed quickly on 1917... the coldest year. Clearly, man-made CO2 was never involved. And July of 1921 was also a very serious problem in Europe.
I think you missed the point of this post. The data used in the original plot are biased and need to be corrected. Then you need to think about the physics of the issue. If you do that, the clear conclusion is that the increase in heatwaves in the last few decades is due to humans.
"I think you missed the point of this post. "
Heh. I, for one, assume that's what he's here for.
"Then you need to think about the physics of the issue. If you do that,the clear conclusion is that the increase in heatwaves in the last few decades is due to humans."
Seems to me he's here to make that unclear! Of his comments, "what is good is not new, and what is new is not good" (h/t Martin Sherlock). AFAICT, his sole motive for commenting on TCB is to obstruct collective decarbonization. You've got more patience than I, for which I'm sure we're all grateful!
Suddenly I see a link in the reply box to 'The Climate Brink reply rules'! Thanks!
I did not miss your point. You totally ignored the data going back to 1917 and 1921 in both the US and in Europe.
Europe in the 1920s was hot and dry … Weather of 1921…press comments OUTSIDE the US: (In the US 1921 was the warmest year on record and it followed 1917 only four years earlier… the coldest year on record)
BRITISH ISLES: London, July 10. England is sweltering and suffering the worst drought in a century. Today was the seventy-eighth virtually rainless day. For the third successive day temperatures have exceeded 100. The rainfall for the year is less than one-third normal to date.
FRANCE: Paris July 12. The Senate yesterday... cancelled the usual July 14 military review in Longchamps owing to the extreme heat.
GERMANY: Berlin, July 27. The potato crop has been the hardest hit of any in Germany by the prolonged dry weather..
RUSSIA: July 17. Twenty million persons are on the verge of starvation in drought-stricken sections of Russia, subsisting mainly on moss, grass and the bark of trees, according to the Vossische Zeitung, which quotes information from "reliable Russian sources." The parched earth, it is asserted, is opening up great crevices, and wells and rivers are drying up. Foliage is asserted to have withered on the trees, and a number of villages are reported on fire
SWITZERLAND: Zermatt: July 26. The heat has not greatly abated. On the summit of the Wellenkuppe, above Zermatt, and 12,830 feet high, the temperature at 10 o'clock in the morning has exceeded 100°F., and this despite the summit's being perpetually snow-clad… never do Alpinists remember such a variety of bright-colored butterflies in the high mountains as this year.
ITALY: July 30. The principal phenomenon...was the intensely hot weather. An unprecedented heat wave continued to develop in its intensity of heat and in its length and duration.
ITALY: Venice, July 30. The principal phenomena which prevailed [this week] was the intensely hot weather. An unprecedented heat wave continued to develop in its intensity of heat and in length of its duration. For several weeks the heat has increased until the past week the temperature has been up in the high nineties for day after day, and unofficial reports of over 100° have been frequent. The extremely high humidity has practically brought active business to a standstill, and has caused many deaths and heat exhaustions. The principal damage caused by the heat wave is the protracted period of drought which accompanies it. Agriculture is the chief sufferer from the heat and drought and no alleviation appears in sight. Weeks of cloudless scorching days have played havoc with the crops which were in progress when the heat wave began.
Clearly atmospheric CO2 was close to pre-industrial and could not have been the proximate cause..physics or not.
My analysis in this post includes data going back to 1900. In Zeke's post (https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/hot-days-cold-thermometers), he shows data for the entire land surface.